All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Hare and Hounds Invitational |
Richmond Invitational |
Arabian Round Up |
Rushville Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Randolph Southern Invitational |
New Castle Invitational |
Jim Leffler Invitational |
Golden Bear Invitational |
Hoosier Heritage Conference |
Connersville Sectional |
Rushville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | |
8/21 |
8/21 |
8/25 |
8/28 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/14 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
| Team Rating |
775 |
963 |
963 |
984 |
1,116 |
1,389 |
|
1,152 |
834 |
1,052 |
1,021 |
897 |
1,043 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
695 |
695 |
722 |
643 |
760 |
803 |
932 |
834 |
820 |
804 |
897 |
853 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Hare and Hounds Invitational |
Richmond Invitational |
Arabian Round Up |
Rushville Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Randolph Southern Invitational |
New Castle Invitational |
Jim Leffler Invitational |
Golden Bear Invitational |
Hoosier Heritage Conference |
Connersville Sectional |
Rushville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
|---|
| 180 |
Lydia Harvey |
11 |
20:14 |
19:56 |
19:56 |
19:41 |
19:31 |
19:41 |
|
20:19 |
20:55 |
20:20 |
20:29 |
21:02 |
20:35 |
20:08 |
| 202 |
Ella Garvin |
11 |
20:22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21:11 |
20:20 |
20:21 |
20:57 |
20:33 |
21:20 |
20:11 |
| 582 |
Sydney Mathews |
10 |
21:43 |
20:52 |
20:52 |
21:12 |
|
|
|
|
22:33 |
|
|
23:09 |
|
|
| 1,077 |
Savannah Kernel |
11 |
22:50 |
22:14 |
22:14 |
22:27 |
21:51 |
22:58 |
23:12 |
22:57 |
22:16 |
23:17 |
23:43 |
22:53 |
23:05 |
|
| 1,342 |
Catherine Willis |
9 |
23:24 |
23:45 |
23:45 |
23:49 |
22:41 |
|
23:30 |
26:14 |
23:35 |
23:39 |
22:19 |
23:09 |
23:17 |
|
|
Jamie Kernel |
12 |
26:14 |
27:01 |
27:01 |
27:08 |
|
27:44 |
27:19 |
26:46 |
27:26 |
27:10 |
27:04 |
27:06 |
25:48 |
|
|
Shelby Nichols |
10 |
26:31 |
25:47 |
25:47 |
26:15 |
26:20 |
26:06 |
26:06 |
27:43 |
27:12 |
|
26:42 |
28:25 |
26:05 |
|
|
Sylvie Terrell |
9 |
27:28 |
25:44 |
25:44 |
25:33 |
25:42 |
26:13 |
27:16 |
27:55 |
33:28 |
30:28 |
34:31 |
|
|
|
|
Lily Farmer |
10 |
27:42 |
27:11 |
27:11 |
27:37 |
27:27 |
27:46 |
|
|
27:45 |
27:51 |
28:42 |
|
|
|
|
Lauren Watterson |
10 |
28:34 |
31:23 |
31:23 |
28:29 |
30:41 |
29:00 |
|
27:18 |
28:43 |
28:00 |
28:09 |
|
|
|
|
Annabelle Rector |
9 |
28:36 |
29:02 |
29:02 |
29:12 |
|
28:57 |
28:10 |
30:54 |
28:31 |
28:10 |
27:35 |
|
|
|
|
Danielle Purvis |
9 |
29:09 |
29:49 |
29:49 |
28:51 |
32:15 |
28:41 |
28:26 |
28:32 |
29:44 |
|
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
6.9 |
168 |
|
|
|
0.3 |
2.4 |
13.9 |
74.8 |
8.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.2 |
76 |
0.1 |
79.6 |
20.2 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lydia Harvey |
0.4% |
101.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
| Ella Garvin |
0.1% |
110.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lydia Harvey |
100% |
58.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Ella Garvin |
100% |
66.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Savannah Kernel |
0.6% |
162.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.6% |
0.6% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lydia Harvey |
100% |
6.4 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
4.7 |
8.6 |
11.3 |
16.9 |
15.8 |
11.7 |
8.9 |
6.9 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Ella Garvin |
100% |
8.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
4.0 |
6.4 |
10.1 |
13.3 |
13.1 |
12.1 |
10.0 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
4.7 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Savannah Kernel |
100% |
47.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Catherine Willis |
100% |
58.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Lydia Harvey |
1.0 |
56.3 |
27.5 |
10.4 |
4.3 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ella Garvin |
1.6 |
23.5 |
41.4 |
20.6 |
9.4 |
3.7 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Savannah Kernel |
15.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
4.4 |
6.6 |
11.9 |
13.3 |
14.2 |
13.8 |
13.5 |
9.9 |
5.9 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| Catherine Willis |
20.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
8.6 |
14.2 |
20.1 |
20.7 |
12.5 |
7.2 |
4.2 |
|
